2025年的互联网将是什么模样

As part of its continuing series on the Future of the Internet, the Pew Research Center asked a group of thinkers in science and technology about what the Internet -- turning 25 years old on Wednesday -- might look like in another 10 years. 在其“互联网的未来”(Future of the Internet)系列调研中，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)调查了一批科学技术领域的思想家，告知他们在3月12日未满25岁的互联网再过10年可能会是什么模样。Their responses speak of a world that is connected deep within homes and well beyond borders. Pew collected the answers into theses buckets of a hopeful and not-so hopeful future (with some other random ideas ginned up, too). 他们的问刻画了一个深深扎根家庭、相比之下跨越国界的网络世界。皮尤研究中心把这些答案归集为“未来有期望”、“未来不过于有期望”的两类（还有其他一些随便的点子）。

Pew posed an open-ended question asking for predictions about the role of the Internet in peoples lives in 2025, and what impact it will have on social, economic and political processes. Good and/or bad, what do you expect to be the most significant overall impacts of our uses of the Internet on humanity between now and 2025? Pew asked. The group polled researchers, entrepreneurs, writers, developers, advocates and others. 皮尤托了一个开放性的问题，拒绝被访者预测2025年互联网在人们生活中的起到，以及它对社会、经济和政治进程的影响。这个问题是：“不论好与怕，你预计从现在到2025年，我们对互联网的用于对人类最显著的整体影响将是什么？”皮尤调查的对象有研究人员、企业家、作家、软件开发者、维权人士等。

Here is a selection of responses plucked from the overview of Digital Life in 2025. You can see the entire report with more anecdotes on Pews site. 以下是摘录“2025年的数字生活”(Digital Life in 2025)阐述的一组问。更加非常丰富的报告全文可在皮尤中心的网站上看见。David Clark , senior research scientist at MIT: Devices will more and more have their own patterns of communication, their own social networks, which they use to share and aggregate information, and undertake automatic control and activation. More and more, humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. The Internet (and computer-mediated communication in general) will become more pervasive but less explicit and visible. It will, to some extent, blend into the background of all we do. 戴维克拉克(David Clark)，麻省理工学院(MIT)高级研究科学家：终端将更加多地享有它们自己的传播形态，它们自己用作共享、汇总信息的“社交网络”，并更加多地专门从事自动化掌控与转录。

人类所处的世界，将更加多地由一组活跃的、相互配合的终端来作出各种要求。互联网（以及整个以计算机为媒介的传播）将显得更为广泛，但更加不显著、更加不可见。在或许上，它将带入我们所做到的一切这个背景当中。

Aron Roberts , software developer at the University of California, Berkeley: We may well see wearable devices and/or home and workplace sensors that can help us make ongoing lifestyle changes and provide early detection for disease risks, not just disease. We may literally be able to adjust both medications and lifestyle changes on a day-by-day basis or even an hour-by-hour basis, thus enormously magnifying the effectiveness of an ever more understaffed medical delivery system. 阿伦罗伯茨(Aron Roberts)，加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)软件开发员：很有可能经常出现需要协助我们持续转变生活方式、尽早探测到疾病风险而不只是疾病的可穿着设备和/或居家、办公传感器。我们也许知道需要按天、甚至是按小时地调整药物以及生活方式的转变，从而很大地缩放一个人员越来越少的医疗服务系统的有效性。David Hughes , who has four decades of experience in digital communications: All 7-plus billion humans on this planet will sooner or later be connected to each other and fixed destinations, via the Uber(not Inter)net. That can lead to the diminished power over peoples lives within nation-states. When every person on this planet can reach, and communicate two-way, with every other person on this planet, the power of nation-states to control every human inside its geographic boundaries may start to diminish. 戴维休斯(David Hughes)，在数字传播领域享有40年的经验：地球上的70多亿人口恐怕将不会通过“Ubernet”（超级网）而非互联网构建相互连接以及与相同目的地的相连。这有可能造成民族国家对人们生活的控制力弱化。

当地球上每一个人都可以和地球上其他所有人双向认识、交流时，民族国家掌控其地理界线之内每一个人的力量有可能就不会开始弱化。Hal Varian , chief economist for Google: The biggest impact on the world will be universal access to all human knowledge. The smartest person in the world currently could well be stuck behind a plow in India or China. Enabling that person -- and the millions like him or her -- will have a profound impact on the development of the human race. Cheap mobile devices will be available worldwide, and educational tools like the Khan Academy will be available to everyone. This will have a huge impact on literacy and numeracy and will lead to a more informed and more educated world population. 哈尔瓦里安(Hal Varian)，谷歌(Google)首席经济学家：对世界仅次于的影响将是需要无处不在地提供所有人类科学知识。目前世界上最聪明的人很有可能是束缚在了印度或中国的一张耕犁后面。

把机会彰显这个人――以及像他或她的几百万人――将对人类的发展产生深刻印象的影响。世界各地都将需要卖到廉价手机，每一个人都将需要取得汗学院(Khan Academy)之类的教育工具。这将对人们的识字算数水平产生极大的影响，将使世界人口更加有科学知识、更加有文化。Llewellyn Kriel , CEO of TopEditor International Media Services: Everything -- every thing -- will be available online with price tags attached. Cyber-terrorism will become commonplace. Privacy and confidentiality of any and all personal will become a thing of the past. Online diseases -- mental, physical, social, addictions (psycho-cyber drugs) -- will affect families and communities and spread willy-nilly across borders. The digital divide will grow and worsen beyond the control of nations or global organizations such as the UN. This will increasingly polarize the planet between haves and have-nots. Global companies will exploit this polarization. Digital criminal networks will become realities of the new frontiers. Terrorism, both by organizations and individuals, will be daily realities. The world will become less and less safe, and only personal skills and insights will protect individuals. 卢埃林克里埃尔(Llewellyn Kriel)，TopEditor International Media Services的CEO：所有东西――所有东西――都将在网上明码标价地出售。

网络恐怖主义将沦为常态。任何人的隐私和机密都将沦为过去时。网络“疾病”――精神疾病、生理疾病、社交疾病、毒瘾（心理-网络毒品）――将影响到家庭和社区，并肆无忌惮地跨越国界而蔓延。数字鸿沟将不会不断扩大并好转，远超过各个国家以及联合国等国际的组织的掌控范围。

这将更加多地导致有产者和无产者之间的两极分化。跨国公司将利润于这种分化。数字犯罪团伙将沦为新的疆界的现实。

不管是组织化的恐怖主义还是个人恐怖主义，都将沦为每天都不存在的现实。世界将显得更加不安全性，只有自己的技能与胆识才能维护个人。Paul Babbitt , an associate professor at Southern Arkansas University: Governments will become much more effective in using the Internet as an instrument of political and social control. That is, filters will be increasingly valuable and important, and effective and useful filters will be able to charge for their services. People will be more than happy to trade the free-wheeling aspect common to many Internet sites for more structured and regulated environments. 保罗巴比特(Paul Babbitt)，南阿肯色大学(Southern Arkansas University)副教授：在将互联网用于政治和社会掌控工具方面，政府的效率将大大提高。

也就是说，过滤器将更加宝贵、更加最重要，有效地、简单的过滤器将可以为其服务收费。人们将十分乐意壮烈牺牲很多网站随心所欲的方面，交换条件秩序更为井然、监管更为严苛的环境。Randy Kluver , an associate professor of communication at Texas AM University: The most neglected aspect of the impact is in the geopolitics of the Internet. There are very few experts focused on this, and yet the rise of digital media promises significant disruption to relations between and among states. Some of the really important dimensions include the development of transnational political actors/movements, the rise of the virtual state, the impact of digital diplomacy efforts, the role of information in undermining state privilege (think Wikileaks), and ... the development of cyber-conflict (in both symmetric and asymmetric forms). 兰迪克吕弗(Randy Kluver)，德州农工大学(Texas AM University)传播学副教授：最被人忽视的影响在于互联网的地缘政治方面。注目这方面的专家非常少，但数字媒体的兴起很有可能给国与国关系带给根本性波折。

一些十分最重要的维度还包括跨国政治角色/运动的发展，虚拟世界政府的蓬勃发展，数字民主化行动的冲击，信息在巩固政府特权方面的起到（如维基解密(Wikileaks)），以及……网络冲突（还包括平面的和非对称的冲突）的发展。Vint Cerf , Google vice president: There will be increased franchise and information sharing. There will be changes to business models to adapt to the economics of digital communication and storage. We may finally get to Internet voting, but only if we have really strong authentication methods available. Privacy must be improved but transparency about what information is retained about users also has to increase. More business will be born online with a global market from the beginning. Massive open online courses will become important revenue streams. 文特瑟夫(Vint Cerf)，谷歌副总裁：授权经营和信息分享将不会更加多。商业模式将不会转变，以适应环境数字传播与存储的经济学。

最后我们可能会有网络议会选举，但条件是享有十分可信的证书方法。隐私必需获得改良，但有关已提供用户信息的透明度也必需提升。更加多的企业将是在网上问世，一开始就射击全球市场。

大众化网络公开课将沦为最重要的收益来源。John Markoff, senior Science writer at the New York Times: What happens the first time you answer the phone and hear from your mother or a close friend, but its actually not, and instead, its a piece of malware that is designed to social engineer you. What kind of a world will we have crossed over into? I basically began as an Internet utopian (think John Perry Barlow), but I have since realized that the technical and social forces that have been unleashed by the microprocessor hold out the potential of a very dystopian world that is also profoundly inegalitarian. I often find myself thinking, Who said it would get better? 约翰马尔科夫(John Markoff)，《纽约时报》(New York Times)资深科学撰稿人：当你第一次接电话听见母亲或好友的声音、只不过那不是母亲或好友而是一款目的对你进行社会化工程反击(social engineering)的恶意软件时，不会再次发生什么事情？我们所迈入的将是一个什么样的世界？最初我基本上是一个对互联网不存在乌托邦式幻想的人（看看约翰佩里巴洛(John Perry Barlow)），但我后来意识到，微处理器获释的技术力量和社会力量有可能可谓一个相反乌托邦的、近于不公平的世界。我常常不由自主地想：“谁说道世界不会更加好的？”You can see the entire report with plenty more anecdotes on Pews site. What do you think the Internet will be like in 10 years -- flowing invisibly in the background like electricity, a tangible and omnipresent part of every day life, something else? Tell us what you think in the comments. 享有更加多非常丰富细节的报告全文可以在皮尤研究中心的网站上看见。你指出10年过后的互联网不会是什么样子的？是像电流一样在幕后无形地流动，还是沦为日常生活中看见摸得着而又无处不在的一部分？还是其他什么样子？请求在评论中写你的点子。

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